If you search Artificial Intelligence on the internet, the first suggestion that comes up is “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humans.” Many questions, some technological, other philosophical prop up. Scientists, academics and intellectuals alike are as concerned about the impact of these new developments as they are hopeful. There is a global competition on a scale perhaps not seen since the arms race of the post Second World War era between the then Soviet Union and the United States.
There are many important questions in this rapidly changing world environment that is rebuilding its foundations on Artificial Intelligence. Will it achieve sentience? What about self-improvement? Ray Kurzweil predicted “technological singularity,” in his book “The Singularity Is Near” suggesting that human mind will go through an exponential intelligence explosion by 2045, and more immediately, reach a stage of “Artificial General Intelligence,” AGI as opposed to AI, by 2028 – that is less than four years from today.
Before delving into the implications of these technologies on the world stage, it is imperative to comprehend these concepts. As the 21st Century unfolds, the balance of power may be influenced not only by military might, but also by ideas, technology, and innovation.
Technological Singularity is a time in the future where technological advancement becomes irreversible. Irving Good, a British Mathematician gave a model in 1965, more than half a century ago, in which he hypothesized an intelligent agent in a positive feedback loop of self-improvement. Each loop not just more intelligent than before but appearing more rapidly than before will lead to a superintelligence that will surpass the human mind.
Nearly six decades ago this model may have been nothing but a hypothesis on a piece of paper. Today, it teeters on the brink of realization.
In a world of invisible networks, algorithms and data, we find ourselves on the precipice of the next Great War – a war that may not be fought on the battlefield but in the digital realm. The roar of gunpowder has already been replaced by the silent precision of drones and cyber-attacks – and we have seen examples of these technological weapons fueled by AI in the recent case of the Israeli genocide in Gaza where Israeli Defense Forces used the infamous Lavender program to mark tens of thousands of Gazans as “suspects for assassination.”
China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, unveiled nearly a decade ago, signals a shift in its global role. No longer content to be merely the “world’s factory,” Beijing aims to lead technological advancements and assert its sovereignty in this domain.
But for many decades, the West, and the United States in particular has dominated the field of technology – even today, the company that fuels the AI growth, Nvidia, has seen a rapid ascent, becoming the world’s most valuable company at 3.3 Trillian US Dollars – only one year ago, it stood at less than one-third of its current position.
Conversely, technological juggernauts such as China’s Huawei have emerged, offering cost-effective and efficient 5G technology, and spearheading the global construction of telecommunication networks. In a different vein, the West has moved to curb Huawei’s influence.
Only six years ago, President Trump imposed tariffs and trade barriers on China, sparking what is now known as the China-United States Trade War. A few months ago, the Biden Administration revised regulations to impede China’s acquisition of U.S. AI chips on grounds of national security, impeding the shipment of advanced AI chips designed by the American giant, Nvidia, to China.
But beyond semi-conductors, 5G and big data, lies an even more important frontier – Artificial Intelligence. AI will drive everything in the future, from self-driving cars to autonomous weapon systems and healthcare. It would not be an overstatement to assert that the country at the helm of AI will wield an unparalleled advantage on the global geopolitical stage.
In the last ten years, the United States led the Tech Startup Race with more than 5,000 AI Startups in the country, compared to less than 1,500 by China. This trend illustrates a compelling dichotomy: while innovation is propelled by private enterprises, universities, and research institutions in the United States, the Chinese government spearheads its AI initiatives.
As billions of dollars are funneled into these nascent technologies, the repercussions for the world at large cannot be overstated. Concerns about the ethics of AI, its impact on the global job market, privacy, and human rights are rife. The specter of a new “arms race” of algorithms and data among the Great Powers will have enduring ramifications for all nations.
While the digital landscape of the world cleaves into two distinct spheres, shaped by the philosophies and leadership of the West and China, nation-states may find themselves compelled to choose sides – choices that will mold the future of global governance.
As China lays its Digital Silk Road across the globe, the United States will counter it with its own developments and technological sanctions. While prohibitions on technology transfer may temporarily halt or slow the Chinese march, it will eventually force Beijing in investing more in its own technology – circling back to the “Made in China 2025” policy and becoming self-reliant in the Artificial Intelligence revolution that has set the stage to take the world by a storm.
Today, we stand poised at the vanguard of this revolution, which will indelibly shape the international stage and conceivably define the future of the world
The writer is the Director of Advocacy and Communications at IPRI and can be reached at siddique.humayun@gmail.com